Methods and systems for automatic generation control of renewable energy resources

ABSTRACT

The present disclosure provides systems and methods for an operation of an electric power plant comprising a renewable energy resource and an energy storage device. The method may comprise determining, at a first time, a forecast of predicted energy production by the electric power plant over a time period subsequent to the first time based on a forecast for the time period; detecting a current state of charge of the energy storage device; calculating a range of automatic generation controls the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for the time period based on the forecast of predicted energy production and the detected current state of charge of the energy storage device; and signaling, from the electric power plant to a central utility controlling a power grid, the range of automatic generation controls the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for the time period.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application claims the benefit of priority to U.S. ProvisionalApplication No. 63/241,654, filed Sep. 8, 2021, the entirety of which isincorporated by reference herein.

BACKGROUND

Renewable energy resources such as solar and wind power can providelarge scale electricity with a fraction of the environmental effects ofcombustion-based power plants. These resources can be intermittent,which in turn can reduce their ability to be used in an electrical gridsystem that balances load and production on a real time basis.

SUMMARY

In one aspect of the present disclosure, a method is provided. Themethod may include determining, at a first time, a forecast of predictedenergy production by an electric power plant over a time periodsubsequent to the first time based on a forecast for the time period,the electric power plant comprising a renewable energy resource and anenergy storage device; detecting a current state of charge of the energystorage device; calculating a range of automatic generation controls theelectric power plant is capable of satisfying for the time period basedon the forecast of predicted energy production and the detected currentstate of charge of the energy storage device; and signaling, from theelectric power plant to a central utility controlling a power grid, therange of automatic generation controls the electric power plant iscapable of satisfying for the time period.

In some embodiments, receipt of the range of automatic generationcontrols causes the central utility to input the range of automaticgeneration controls into an optimization function for distributingenergy from the power grid over the time period; and distribute energyto one or more loads from the power grid according to an output of theoptimization function.

In some embodiments, the time period is a first time period, theforecast of predicted energy production is a first forecast of predictedenergy production, the current state of charge is a first current stateof charge, and the range of automatic generation controls is a firstrange of automatic generation controls, further comprising: during thefirst time period, determining a second forecast of predicted energyproduction by the electric power plant over a second time periodsubsequent to the first time period, based on a forecast for the secondtime period; detecting a second current state of charge of the energystorage device; calculating a second range of automatic generationcontrols the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for thesecond time period subsequent to the first time period; and signaling,from the electric power plant to the central utility, the second rangeof automatic generation controls the electric power plant is capable ofsatisfying for the second time period.

In some embodiments, calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols comprises determining a predicted power production based on thepredicted energy production and a duration of the time period;determining a state of charge limit of the energy storage device hasbecome binding; responsive to the determining the state of charge limitof the energy storage device has become binding, determining todischarge the energy storage device; and responsive to the determiningto discharge the energy storage device, setting upper and lower limitsof the range of automatic generation controls to the predicted powerproduction plus a maximum achievable discharge power of the energystorage device.

In some embodiments, calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols further comprises determining a state of charge limit of theenergy storage device has become binding; responsive to the determiningthe state of charge limit of the energy storage device has becomebinding, determining to charge the energy storage device; and responsiveto the determining to charge the energy storage device, setting upperand lower limits of the range of automatic generation controls to zero.

In some embodiments, calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols further comprises determining a predicted power productionbased on the predicted energy production and a duration of the timeperiod; determining a state of charge limit of the energy storage devicehas become binding; responsive to the determining the state of chargelimit of the energy storage device has become binding, determining tocharge the energy storage device; and responsive to the determining tocharge the energy storage device, setting upper and lower limits of therange of automatic generation controls to an excess predicted powerproduction over a maximum achievable charging power of the energystorage device.

In some embodiments, calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols further comprises setting the upper and lower limits of therange of automatic generation controls to an excess predicted powerproduction is performed further responsive to determining the predictedpower production exceeds the maximum achievable charge power of theenergy storage device.

In some embodiments, calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols comprises determining a predicted power production based on thepredicted energy production and a duration of the time period;determining a state of charge limit of the energy storage device has notbecome binding; responsive to the determining the state of charge limitof the energy storage device has not become binding, setting an upperlimit of the range of automatic generation controls to a lesser of (a) apower limit of a point of interconnection of the power grid, and (b) asum of the predicted power production and a maximum achievable dischargepower of the energy storage device.

In some embodiments, calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols further comprises further responsive to the determining thestate of charge limit of the energy storage device has not becomebinding, setting a lower limit of the range of automatic generationcontrols to a greater of (a) zero, and (b) the predicted powerproduction minus the maximum achievable discharge power of the energystorage device.

In some embodiments, calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols comprises calculating a confidence score for the range ofautomatic generation controls, wherein signaling the range of automaticgeneration controls to the central utility comprises transmitting theconfidence score for the range with the range.

In some embodiments, the method further comprises receiving, during thetime period, a request for an amount of power below a lower bound of therange; and responsive to the request, sending, from the electric powerplant, power equal to the lower bound to the power grid.

In another aspect, a system is disclosed. The one or more computerprocessors may be configured by machine-readable instructions todetermine, at a first time, a forecast of predicted energy production byan electric power plant over a time period subsequent to the first timebased on a forecast for the time period, the electric power plantcomprising a renewable energy resource and an energy storage device;detecting a current state of charge of the energy storage device;calculate a range of automatic generation controls the electric powerplant is capable of satisfying for the time period based on the forecastof predicted energy production and the detected current state of chargeof the energy storage device; and signal, from the electric power plantto a central utility controlling a power grid, the range of automaticgeneration controls the electric power plant is capable of satisfyingfor the time period.

In some embodiments, receipt of the range of automatic generationcontrols causes the central utility to input the range of automaticgeneration controls into an optimization function for distributingenergy from the power grid over the time period; and distribute energyto one or more loads from the power grid according to an output of theoptimization function. In some embodiments, the time period is a firsttime period, the forecast of predicted energy production is a firstforecast of predicted energy production, the current state of charge isa first current state of charge, and the range of automatic generationcontrols is a first range of automatic generation controls, wherein theone or more computing devices are further configured by machine-readableinstructions to during the first time period, determine a secondforecast of predicted energy production by the electric power plant overa second time period subsequent to the first time period, based on aforecast for the second time period; detect a second current state ofcharge of the energy storage device; calculate a second range ofautomatic generation controls the electric power plant is capable ofsatisfying for the second time period subsequent to the first timeperiod; and signal, from the electric power plant to the centralutility, the second range of automatic generation controls the electricpower plant is capable of satisfying for the second time period.

In some embodiments, the one or more computer processors are configuredby machine-readable instructions to calculate the range of automaticgeneration controls by determining a predicted power production based onthe predicted energy production and a duration of the time period;determining a state of charge limit of the energy storage device hasbecome binding; responsive to the determining the state of charge limitof the energy storage device has become binding, determining todischarge the energy storage device; and responsive to the determiningto discharge the energy storage device, setting upper and lower limitsof the range of automatic generation controls to the predicted powerproduction plus a maximum achievable discharge power of the energystorage device.

In some embodiments, the one or more computer processors are configuredby machine-readable instructions to calculate the range of automaticgeneration controls by determining a state of charge limit of the energystorage device has become binding; responsive to the determining thestate of charge limit of the energy storage device has become binding,determining to charge the energy storage device; and responsive to thedetermining to charge the energy storage device, setting upper and lowerlimits of the range of automatic generation controls to zero.

In some embodiments, the one or more computer processors are configuredby machine-readable instructions to calculate the range of automaticgeneration controls by determining a predicted power production based onthe predicted energy production and a duration of the time period;determining a state of charge limit of the energy storage device hasbecome binding; responsive to the determining the state of charge limitof the energy storage device has become binding, determining to chargethe energy storage device; and responsive to the determining to chargethe energy storage device, setting upper and lower limits of the rangeof automatic generation controls to an excess predicted power productionover a maximum achievable charging power of the energy storage device.

In some embodiments, the one or more computer processors are configuredby machine-readable instructions to set upper and lower limits of therange of automatic generation controls to an excess predicted powerproduction further responsive to determining the predicted powerproduction exceeds the maximum achievable charge power of the energystorage device. In some embodiments, the one or more computer processorsare configured by machine-readable instructions to calculate the rangeof automatic generation controls by determining a state of charge limitof the energy storage device has not become binding; responsive to thedetermining the state of charge limit of the energy storage device hasnot become binding, setting an upper limit of the range of automaticgeneration controls to a lesser of (a) a power limit of a point ofinterconnection of the power grid, and (b) a sum of the predicted powerproduction and a maximum achievable discharge power of the energystorage device.

In another aspect, one or more non-transitory computer storage mediastoring instructions are disclosed. The one or more non-transitorycomputer storage media may be operable, when executed by one or morecomputers, to cause said one or more computers to perform operationscomprising determining, at a first time, a forecast of predicted energyproduction by the electric power plant over a time period subsequent tothe first time based on a forecast for the time period, the electricpower plant comprising an; detecting a current state of charge of theenergy storage device; calculating a range of automatic generationcontrols the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for the timeperiod based on the forecast of predicted energy production and thedetected current state of charge of the energy storage device; andsignaling, from an electric power plant comprising a renewable energyresource and an energy storage device to a central utility controlling apower grid, the range of automatic generation controls the electricpower plant is capable of satisfying for the time period.

In an aspect, the present disclosure provides a method, comprising: (a)providing an electric power plant comprising a renewable energy resourceand an energy storage device; and (b) signaling, from the electric powerplant to a central utility, a range of automatic generation controls theelectric power plant is capable of satisfying for a time period, whereinthe range of automatic generation controls are signaled at a time priorto the time period.

In some embodiments, the renewable energy resource is a solar resource,a wind resource, or any combination thereof. In some embodiments, therange of automatic generation controls have a predetermined duration. Insome embodiments, the range of automatic generation controls aredetermined using one or more of a capacity of the renewable energyresource, a capacity of the energy storage device, a current chargelevel of the energy storage device, a discharge rate of the energystorage device, a charge rate of the energy storage device, a forecastof an output of the renewable energy resource, or a property of asubstation between the electric power plant and a power grid. In someembodiments, the method further comprises (c), supplying, from theelectric power plant to an energy grid, an amount of electricity withinthe range of automatic generation controls. In some embodiments, thetime is at least about 1 hour prior to the time period. In someembodiments, the time is at least about 4 hours prior to the timeperiod. In some embodiments, the time is at least about 6 hours prior tothe time period. In some embodiments, the time is at least about 12hours prior to the time period. In some embodiments, the time is atleast about 24 hours prior to the time period. In some embodiments, anupper limit or a lower limit of the range of automatic generationcontrols is based at least in part on one or more of a maximum orminimum output of the renewable energy resource, a maximum or minimumoutput of the energy storage device, a capacity of an interconnectbetween the electric power plant and an energy grid, a forecast of anenergy production by the electric power plant, and a state of charge ofthe energy storage device. In some embodiments, the forecast provides aplurality of ranges of possible production values of the electric powerplant. In some embodiments, the method further comprises a confidenceinterval associated with each range of the plurality of ranges. In someembodiments, the forecast comprises a forecast for a time longer thanthe time period. In some embodiments, the range of automatic generationcontrols are associated with a period of time the range of automaticgeneration controls are valid for.

In another aspect, the present disclosure provides a system, comprising:an electric power plant comprising a renewable energy resource and anenergy storage device; and one or more computer processors operativelycoupled to computer memory, wherein the one or more computer processorsare individually or collectively configured to signal, from the electricpower plant to a central utility, a range of automatic generationcontrols the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for a timeperiod at a time prior to the time period.

In another aspect, the present disclosure provides one or morenon-transitory computer storage media storing instructions that areoperable, when executed by one or more computers, to cause the one ormore computers to perform operations comprising (a) signaling, from anelectric power plant comprising a renewable energy resource and anenergy storage device to a central utility, a range of automaticgeneration controls the electric power plant is capable of satisfyingfor a time period at a time prior to the time period.

Another aspect of the present disclosure provides a system comprisingone or more computer processors and computer memory coupled thereto. Thecomputer memory comprises machine executable code that, upon executionby the one or more computer processors, implements any of the methodsabove or elsewhere herein.

Additional aspects and advantages of the present disclosure will becomereadily apparent to those skilled in this art from the followingdetailed description, wherein only illustrative embodiments of thepresent disclosure are shown and described. As will be realized, thepresent disclosure is capable of other and different embodiments, andits several details are capable of modifications in various obviousrespects, all without departing from the disclosure. Accordingly, thedrawings and description are to be regarded as illustrative in nature,and not as restrictive.

INCORPORATION BY REFERENCE

All publications, patents, and patent applications mentioned in thisspecification are herein incorporated by reference to the same extent asif each individual publication, patent, or patent application wasspecifically and individually indicated to be incorporated by reference.To the extent publications and patents or patent applicationsincorporated by reference contradict the disclosure contained in thespecification, the specification is intended to supersede and/or takeprecedence over any such contradictory material.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

The novel features of the invention are set forth with particularity inthe appended claims. A better understanding of the features andadvantages of the present invention will be obtained by reference to thefollowing detailed description that sets forth illustrative embodiments,in which the principles of the invention are utilized, and theaccompanying drawings (also “Figure” and “FIG.” herein), of which:

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a method, according to an embodiment of thepresent disclosure.

FIGS. 2-5 are examples of time resolved output graphs, according to someembodiments.

FIG. 6 shows a computer system that is programmed or otherwiseconfigured to implement methods provided herein, according to someembodiments.

FIGS. 7-8 are examples of pseudocode for a charging logic loop and adischarge logic loop, respectively, for generating a AGC range,according to some embodiments.

FIG. 9 illustrates a method for automatic generation control ofrenewable energy resources, according to some embodiments.

FIG. 10 illustrates a method for calculating an AGC range, according tosome embodiments.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

While various embodiments of the invention have been shown and describedherein, it will be obvious to those skilled in the art that suchembodiments are provided by way of example only. Numerous variations,changes, and substitutions may occur to those skilled in the art withoutdeparting from the invention. It should be understood that variousalternatives to the embodiments of the invention described herein may beemployed.

Whenever the term “at least,” “greater than,” or “greater than or equalto” precedes the first numerical value in a series of two or morenumerical values, the term “at least,” “greater than” or “greater thanor equal to” applies to each of the numerical values in that series ofnumerical values. For example, greater than or equal to 1, 2, or 3 isequivalent to greater than or equal to 1, greater than or equal to 2, orgreater than or equal to 3.

Whenever the term “no more than,” “less than,” or “less than or equalto” precedes the first numerical value in a series of two or morenumerical values, the term “no more than,” “less than,” or “less than orequal to” applies to each of the numerical values in that series ofnumerical values. For example, less than or equal to 3, 2, or 1 isequivalent to less than or equal to 3, less than or equal to 2, or lessthan or equal to 1.

Certain inventive embodiments herein contemplate numerical ranges. Whenranges are present, the ranges include the range endpoints.Additionally, every sub range and value within the range is present asif explicitly written out. The term “about” or “approximately” may meanwithin an acceptable error range for the particular value, which willdepend in part on how the value is measured or determined, e.g., thelimitations of the measurement system. For example, “about” may meanwithin 1 or more than 1 standard deviation, per the practice in the art.Alternatively, “about” may mean a range of up to 20%, up to 10%, up to5%, or up to 1% of a given value. Where particular values are describedin the application and claims, unless otherwise stated the term “about”meaning within an acceptable error range for the particular value may beassumed.

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a method 100, according to an embodiment of thepresent disclosure. The method 100 may comprise providing an electricpower plant comprising a renewable energy resource and an energy storagedevice (110). The electronic power plant may comprise a plurality ofrenewable energy resources. The electric power plant may comprise aplurality of energy storage devices. The operations of method 100 may beperformed by a controller or other computing device comprising one ormore processors and memory. The operations of method 100 may beperformed in any order and may contain more or fewer operations,depending on the implementation.

The renewable energy resource may comprise a solar resource, a windresource, a hydroelectric resource, a biomass resource, a geothermalresource, a tidal resource, or the like, or any combination thereof. Thesolar resource may comprise one or more solar panel modules (e.g., oneor more silicon solar panels, one or more tandem solar panels, etc.),one or more solar concentrators (e.g., mirrors, luminescentconcentrators, etc.), one or more heliostats (e.g., central solartowers), or the like, or any combination thereof. The wind resource maycomprise one or more wind turbines (e.g., horizontal-axis turbines,vertical-axis turbines, counter-rotating wind turbines, etc.). Therenewable energy resource may comprise at least about 2, 5, 10, 50, 100,500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 50,000, or more individual components of theresource. For example, the renewable energy resource can comprise 1,000individual solar modules. The renewable energy resource may comprise atmost about 50,000, 10,000, 5,000, 1,000, 500, 100, 50, 10, 5, or fewerindividual components of the resource.

The energy storage device may comprise one or more batteries. The one ormore batteries may comprise one or more battery cells. The one or morebatteries may comprise rechargeable batteries. The one or more batteriesmay comprise one or more lithium-ion batteries, lead-acid batteries,flow batteries, aluminum-ion batteries, metal-air batteries, molten-saltbatteries, nickel-cadmium batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries, orthe like, or any combination thereof. The energy storage device maycomprise a hydroelectric energy storage device. For example, the energystorage device can use the potential energy of a body of water as energystorage. The energy storage device may have a capacity of at least about0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, ormore megawatt hours. The energy storage device may have a capacity of atmost about 10,000, 5,000, 1,000, 500, 100, 50, 10, 5, 1, 0.5, 0.1, 0.05,0.01, or fewer megawatt hours.

The method 100 may comprise signaling, from the electric power plant toa central utility, a range of automatic generation controls the electricpower plant is capable of satisfying for a time period. The range ofautomatic generation controls may be signaled at a time prior to thetime period (120). The central utility may be an electrical gridcontrol. For example, the electric power plant can be connected to apower grid, and the signal can be sent to the controller of the powergrid.

The range of automatic generation controls (AGC's) may have apredetermined duration. For example, the electric power plant cantransmit a range of automatic generation controls that are valid for apredetermined time. In this example, once that time has passed, theplant can send a new set of AGC's. The predetermined duration may bebased on, for example, the projected output of the electric power plant,the charge status of the energy storage device, the maximum and/orminimum values of the AGC range, or the like, or any combinationthereof. The predetermined duration may be at least about 0.25, 0.5,0.75, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19,20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 48, 72, or more hours. The predetermined durationmay be at most about 72, 48, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14,13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0.75, 0.5, 0.25, or lesshours. The time the range of AGC's is signaled to the central utilitymay be at least about 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 48, 72, or morehours prior to the time period. The time the range of AGC's is signaledto the central utility may be at most about 72, 48, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20,19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0.75,0.5, 0.25, or less hours prior to the time period. The range of AGC'smay be associated with a period of time that the AGC's are valid for.For example, the AGC's can be transmitted stating that the ranges arevalid for a period of 6 hours. The range of AGC's may be valid for afixed period of time. For example, each range can be valid for about oneday.

The range of AGC's may be determined using one or more of a capacity ofthe renewable energy resource, a capacity of the energy storage device,a current charge level of the energy storage device, a discharge rate ofthe energy storage device, a forecast of an output of the renewableenergy resource, a property of a substation situated between theelectric power plant and a power grid, or the like, or any combinationthereof. The capacity of the renewable energy resource may be atheoretical maximum output of the renewable energy resource. Forexample, the capacity can be the rated output of a solar modulemultiplied by the number of solar modules in the renewable energyresource. The capacity of the renewable energy resource may be anoperating capacity. For example, the maximum output of the resource canbe measured over a period of time, and the average over that time periodcan be used as the capacity of the renewable energy resource. The rangeof AGC's may be determined at least in part using a requirement for astate of charge of the energy storage device. For example, anengineering constraint may require an energy storage device to maintainat least a 10% charge. In this example, the range can be determined soas to leave at least 10% charge in the energy storage device. The rangeof AGC's may be determined at least in part using one or more other gridcharging constraints. Examples of grid charging constraints include, butare not limited to, a limitation on if the energy storage device may becharged with energy from the grid (e.g., a prohibition or limitation onthe amount of energy permissible to draw from the grid), a limitation ofthe maximum instantaneous power that may be drawn from the grid tocharge the energy storage device (e.g., the maximum output of the gridmay be less than the maximum instantaneous power that the energy storagedevice may be capable of accepting), or the like, or any combinationthereof.

The capacity of the energy storage device may be a rated capacity of theenergy storage device. For example, a capacity of a battery can be thenumber of watt hours the battery is rated to hold. The capacity of theenergy storage device can be a measured average of the capacity of theenergy storage device. For example, the running average of the capacityof the energy storage device can be used as the capacity of the energystorage device. In this example, a degradation of the energy storagedevice due to age can be factored into the capacity of the energystorage device used for the AGC. The current charge level of the energystorage device may be a measure of the amount of electrical energycontained within the energy storage device. For example, a battery witha capacity of 50 kilowatt hours with a current charge of 25 kilowatthours can have a current charge level of 50%. The discharge rate of theenergy storage device can be a rate at which the energy storage deviceis capable of discharging stored electrical energy. The discharge ratemay be affected by the type of energy storage device used (e.g., alithium ion battery can have a faster discharge rate than a lead acidbattery). The discharge rate can limit the amount of energy that isdeliverable by the energy storage device in a given period of time. Forexample, a battery with 8 megawatt hours of stored energy but a maximumdischarge rate of 1 megawatt can take 8 hours to discharge. The energystorage device may have a minimum level of charge to be maintainedwithin the energy storage device. For example, a lithium ion battery mayhave a minimum charge level used to prevent irreversible transformationsfor occurring within the battery.

The forecast of the output of the renewable energy resource may be aprediction of the output of the resource based on one or more factors.For example, a forecast for a solar resource can consider the projectedweather for the region with the solar resource. In this example, aweather forecast that includes cloudy weather can result in a forecastfor the solar resource that is lower than if the weather forecast werefor clear days. Similarly, a weather forecast that predicts consistentwinds can positively influence a forecast for a wind resource. Examplesof factors include, but are not limited to, weather conditions, daylengths, conditions of the sun, satellite images, ground-based skyimages, or the like, or any combination thereof. The property of thesubstation between the electric power plant and the power grid may be aproperty of the capacity of the substation. For example, a substationmay have a maximum throughput of 10 megawatts while the electric powerplant can have a maximum output of 15 megawatts. In this example, theupper bound of the range may be 10 megawatts as limited by thesubstation. Examples of substation properties may include, but are notlimited to, substation throughput capacity, substation location, otherresources connected to the substation, or the like, or any combinationthereof. A first forecast may be transmitted with a first confidenceinterval, and a second forecast may be transmitted later with a secondconfidence interval. For example, a first forecast can be associatedwith a 50% confidence interval, but a later, more accurate forecast canbe transmitted with an 80% confidence interval.

An upper limit or a lower limit of the range of AGC's may be based atleast in part on one or more of a maximum or minimum output of therenewable energy resource, a maximum or minimum output of the energystorage device, a capacity of an interconnect between the electric powerplant and an energy grid, a forecast of an energy production by theelectric power plant, and a state of charge of the energy storagedevice. The maximum or minimum output of the renewable energy resourcemay be related to environmental factors effecting the resource. Forexample, a solar resource can have a maximum output at normal solarincidence and a minimum output on a cloudy day. The maximum or minimumoutput of the energy storage device may be related to the type of energystorage device used. For example, a battery can have a maximum outputbased on the chemical reactions that release the electricity from thebattery. In another example, a different battery may have a minimumconstant discharge. The capacity of the interconnect may be as describedelsewhere herein. For example, the capacity can be related to thethroughput capacity of a substation. The forecast may be as describedelsewhere herein. For example, a clear forecast can result in anincreased maximum output for the AGC. The state of charge of the energystorage device can influence the upper or lower limit by, in conjunctionwith the maximum or minimum output of the energy storage device,determining the length of time that the energy storage device candischarge for. In an example, an upper limit of the AGC range can becalculated from a maximum forecast output of the resource, a maximumdischarge rate of the energy storage device, and a maximum output of asubstation between the power plant and the grid. In this example, thecurrent charge of the energy storage device can dictate the time periodthe AGC is good for.

The forecast may provide a plurality of ranges of possible productionvalues for the electric power plant. For example, depending on theforecast, the production values can be higher or lower based on theactual conditions. Each range of the plurality of ranges may beassociated with a confidence interval. The confidence interval mayrelate to a statistical likelihood of a given range being accurate. Forexample, a range of 5 to 25 kilowatts can be provided with a confidenceof 75%, and a range of 10 to 15 kilowatts can be provided with aconfidence of 50%. Providing the range of possible production values canenable the central utility to issue AGC's for a value based on theutility's risk tolerance for the value. For example, when the utilitydetermines that the power drawn from the plant is critical to thefunctioning of the grid, the utility can issue an AGC for a range with ahigh confidence interval. The forecast may be for a time longer than thetime period. For example, the forecast can be for a 24 hour period, butthe time period of the AGC can be for a 4 hour period. The longerforecast time may provide increased confidence in the values given forthe particular time period.

In some embodiments, signaling the range of automatic generationcontrols to the central utility may cause the central utility to changehow it controls the power grid. For instance, the central utility maydistribute energy to various loads over time using an internaloptimization function that is configured to determine the most efficientor cost effective method to distribute energy to the various loads. Thecentral utility may implement the optimization function by executingvarious algorithms such as deterministic and/or machine learningalgorithms. The optimization function may use various inputs todetermine how to distribute the energy, such as the energy that iscurrently stored in the power grid and ranges of automatic generationcontrols that are provided to the central utility by various energysources. The central utility may input the range of automatic generationcontrols for the time period into the internal optimization function todetermine a new energy distribution and subsequently distribute energyto the loads according to the new energy distribution.

The method 100 may optionally comprise supplying, from the electricpower plant to an energy grid, an amount of electricity within the rangeof automatic generation controls (130). If the power plant receives arequest for an amount of power above an upper limit of the range, thepower plant may supply an amount of power equal to the upper limit. Forexample, for a range with an upper limit of 50 kilowatts, a power plantcan provide 50 kilowatts to a request for 60 kilowatts. If the powerplant receives a request for an amount of power below a lower limit ofthe range, the power plant may supply an amount of power equal to thelower limit. For example, for a range with a lower limit of 1 kilowatt,the power plant can provide 1 kilowatt to a request for 0 kilowatts.

FIGS. 7-8 are examples of pseudocode for a charging logic loop and adischarge logic loop, respectively, for generating an AGC range,according to some embodiments. Though described in these examples withrespect to a photovoltaic renewable resource, the methods implemented bythe pseudocode can be used for other renewable resources as describedelsewhere herein. The pseudocode may run at predetermined timesteps. Thepseudocode may be used to generate an AGC range for a time period. Forexample, the pseudocode can be run at the end of each previous timeperiod to form an AGC range for the next time period. The availableenergy may be a sum of a forecasted energy production from the renewableresource during the time period and the maximum energy the energystorage device can discharge during the time period. The maximum energythe energy storage device can discharge during the time period can bethe lesser of a) a maximum discharge rate achievable by the energystorage device multiplied by the duration of the time period and b) anamount of energy stored in the device. For example, an energy storagedevice with a maximum rated output of 1 kilowatt per hour and a chargeof 10 kilowatts can have a maximum power of 1 kilowatt per hour for a5-hour period. In another example, an energy storage device with amaximum rated output of 10 kilowatts and a charge of 10 kilowatt hourscan have a maximum power of 2 kilowatts for a 5-hour period. Therequired energy may be an amount of energy that can be delivered to agrid from the electric power plant through a grid interconnect (e.g., asubstation) if power from the plant were delivered at the level of anAGC request for the entire time period.

In some embodiments, the pseudocode (or any other operations or code fordetermining an AGC range for a time period) can be run duringconsecutive time periods. For example, the pseudocode may be used togenerate an AGC range for a first time period. During the first timeperiod, the pseudocode can be run again to generate an AGC range for asecond time period subsequent to the first time period. The AGC rangesmay be transmitted to the central utility as soon as they are determinedor calculated. Consequently, the central utility may be able to betterprepare for differences in the AGC ranges, for instance if there is asudden shift in the amount of power a renewable energy source maygenerate (such as if there was a sudden change in the weather forecastfor a day). Further, the central utility may be able to prepare for eachtime period instead of waiting for a new AGC range at the end of thetime periods, therefore eliminating any time gap in which the centralutility does not have any data about how much energy to expect.

In the pseudocode, a BESS may be a battery energy storage system. Thebattery energy storage system may be an energy storage device asdescribed elsewhere herein. Though used in this example to refer tobatteries, the methods outlined by this pseudocode may be used for otherenergy storage devices. The BESS may have a maximum power the BESS canbe discharged during the time period (e.g., BESS_discharge_capacity).The maximum power may be the lesser of the maximum rated discharge powerof the BESS (e.g., the BESS output capacity) and the remaining energy(e.g., SOC, SOE, etc.) of the BESS divided by the length of the timeperiod as described elsewhere herein. The headroom may be a measure ofthe amount of power that the energy storage device (e.g., BESS) iscapable of discharging during the time period. The headroom may be thelesser of a) an interconnection limit (e.g. IC limit, the maximum amountof power that can be delivered to a grid through an interconnectionpoint (e.g., a substation)) minus a capacity of a renewable resource(e.g., the amount of power forecast to be produced by the renewableresource) and b) the BESS_discharge_capacity.

The BESS upper bound can be a maximum limit on the amount of power thancan be discharged from the BESS, while the BESS lower bound can be aminimum limit on the amount of power that can be discharged from theBESS. In both cases, a positive value can represent power dischargingfrom the BESS while a negative value can represent power charging theBESS. The chargeable_pv can be a minimum of a) a production capacity(e.g., a power production capacity) of the renewable energy resource andb) a maximum charging power limit of the BESS (e.g., a charging capacityunrelated to the BESS upper bound and BESS lower bound). The AGC_signalcan be a power output requested by an AGC signal. For example, a gridoperator can send an AGC request to the power plant, and the request cancomprise a value for AGC_signal. The value for pv_current can be a powerproduction of the renewable energy resource at the time that thepseudocode is ran. The value of pv_current can change with varyingconditions of the renewable energy resource. pv_forecast can be thepredicted energy production during the next time interval (e.g., thenext time period starting from the current time or a predetermined timeperiod).

For the first case of the charging logic of FIG. 7, if the availableenergy is greater than the required energy, the first set of comparisonscan be performed. In this case, the BESS upper bound can be the minimumvalue from the headroom and the BESS_discharge_capacity. For example, ifthe BESS were to output more power than the headroom, the gridinterconnect can be overloaded and power wasted. In another examplewhere the headroom is greater than the BESS_discharge_capacity, the BESScannot exceed its maximum discharge capacity even if there is headroomto allow such discharge. The BESS_lower_bound can be the negative of thechargeable_pv. For example, the lower bound output of the BESS can beonly the amount of energy the BESS is capable of intaking from therenewable resource. In this example, the BESS can be used to decreasethe amount of power output by the renewable resource. The BESS ideal canbe a measure of the optimal output of the BESS to satisfy the AGCcommand that is received. For example, if the BESS upper bound is morethan the AGC_signal minus the pv_current power, the power plant canoutput power from the BESS to supplement the renewable resource andachieve the predetermined AGC level. In this example, if the BESS lowerbound is lower than the AGC_signal minus the pv_current power, the powerplant can output power from the BESS to exactly achieve the AGC request.In this example, if the BESS lower bound is higher than the AGC_signalminus the pv_current power, the BESS can output energy at the level ofthe lower bound.

In cases where the available forecasted energy from the power plant isequal to the required energy, the second portion of the pseudocode ofFIG. 7 is used. In those cases, the output of the BESS can be set to thenegative of chargeable_pv for all bounds, as the output of the renewableresource meets the AGC. If the available forecasted energy from thepower plant is less than the required energy, a greedy charging scenariomay be implemented. For example, the algorithm can direct all orsubstantially all of the output of the power plant to charging the BESS.In this example, the output can be directed until the time period of theAGC, at which point the power from the power plant and the BESS can beused to attempt to fill the AGC request.

For the example of the first code portion of FIG. 8, if the availableheadroom is greater than the required headroom, the first portion of thepseudocode may be executed. In this case, the BESS upper bound can bethe minimum of the headroom and the BESS_discharge_capacity. Forexample, the upper bound of the output of the BESS can be determined bythe lesser of the amount of headroom there is between the output of therenewable resource and the rated output capacity of the BESS. The BESSlower bound can be the inverse of chargeable_pv as described elsewhereherein. The value of BESS ideal can be as described elsewhere hereinwith respect to the charging logic of FIG. 7. In cases where theavailable forecast headroom is less than or equal to the requiredheadroom, the second portion of the pseudocode of FIG. 8 can beimplemented. In this case, since the forecast meets the requiredheadroom, the BESS can be bypassed or used to a full capacity as managedby the headroom value.

FIG. 9 illustrates a method 900 for automatic generation control ofrenewable energy resources, in accordance with one or more embodiments.Method 900 can be performed by a data processing system (e.g., acontroller, a computer of computing system 601, shown and described withreference to FIG. 6, etc.). Method 900 may include more or feweroperations and the operations may be performed in any order. Performanceof method 900 may enable the data processing system to provide advanceinformation of the range of AGC commands it could satisfy in a next timeinterval to a central utility, enabling the central utility to both a)issue an AGC command with confidence the plant will satisfy it, and b)plan for the (potentially limited) range of AGC the plant is capable ofat each time interval.

At operation 902, the data processing system may provide an electricpower plant and an energy storage device. The energy storage device maybe configured to receive energy from various renewable energy sources.At operation 904, the data processing system may determine a forecast ofpredicted energy production of the electric power plant. The dataprocessing system may determine the predicted energy production for afuture time period. The data processing system may determine the energyforecast based on a weather forecast (or any other type of forecast)that the data processing system receives from a weather forecastprovider and based on the renewable energy sources (e.g., windmills orsolar panels) that generate energy from the weather. In someembodiments, the data processing system generates the forecast ofpredicted energy production based on historical energy productionforecasts at the power plant. In one example, the data processing systemmay identify the actual energy production of the power plant at acorresponding time period to the time of the forecast of predictedenergy production (e.g., if the forecast of predicted energy productionis from 1 pm to 2 pm on Tuesday, the data processing system may identifythe actual energy production from 1 pm to 2 pm on the preceding Mondayand determine the forecast of predicted energy production from 1 pm to 2pm on Tuesday is the same). In another example, the data processingsystem may determine the forecast of predicted energy production fromthe time period is an average of actual energy production at the sametime of previous days or time periods. The data processing system maydetermine the forecast of energy production based on any rule orhistorical energy production values.

At operation 906, the data processing system may detect a current stateof charge of an energy storage device of the electric power plant. Thedata processing system may do so by analyzing the current state of theenergy storage device and/or by maintaining a record of the amount ofenergy that has been stored in the energy storage device, the amount ofenergy that has been distributed from the energy storage device, and/orthe amount of the energy that has dissipated from the energy storagedevice. The data processing system may calculate the current state ofcharge, for example, by subtracting the dissipated and distributedenergy from the stored energy. In doing so, the data processing systemmay keep a real-time record of the state of charge of the energy storagedevice.

At operation 908, the data processing system may calculate a range ofautomatic generation controls. The data processing system may calculatethe range of automatic generation controls as described below withreference to FIG. 10. In calculating the range, the data processingsystem may execute pseudocode (e.g., the pseudocode described above) tocalculate a range of automatic generation controls the electric powerplant is capable of satisfying for the future time period based on theforecast of predicted energy production and the detected current stateof charge of the energy storage device. The data processing system mayset the upper and lower limit of the range by writing the values for theupper and lower limits into a message. At operation 910, the dataprocessing system may signal the range of automatic generation controlsto a central utility (e.g., transmit the generated message to thecentral utility).

FIG. 10 illustrates a method 1000 for calculating a range of AGC controlsignals that can be sent to central utility for power distributioncontrol of a power grid. Method 1000 can be performed by a dataprocessing system (e.g., a controller, a computer of computing system601, shown and described with reference to FIG. 6, etc.). Method 1000may include more or fewer operations and the operations may be performedin any order. Performance of method 1000 may enable the data processingsystem to determine a range of AGC control signals based on forecastenergy production for a time period and the current charge of an energystorage device for which the data processing system provides charge anddischarge instructions.

At operation 1002, the data processing system retrieves informationabout the current state of charge of the energy storage device and thepredicted energy generation for a time period as set forth in method 900(e.g., a future time period from the time the data processing system isperforming method 1000). For example, the data processing system mayretrieve the current state of charge of the energy storage device, theforecast predicted energy production (e.g., predicted energy production)by the electric power plant during the time period, the maximum rate atwhich the energy storage device may be charged, and/or the storagecapacity of the energy storage device. The data processing system mayretrieve these values from memory after detecting the current state ofcharge of the energy storage device and the predicted energy productionof the power plant for the time period. In some embodiments, the dataprocessing system may also retrieve a state of charge schedule thatindicates target state of charge percentages at different timesthroughout the time period.

In some embodiments, the data processing system may determine apredicted power production for the time period. The data processingsystem may determine the predicted power production based on theretrieved predicted energy production and a duration of the time period.For example, the data processing system may determine the predictedpower production for the time period by dividing the predicted energyproduction for the time period by the duration (e.g., one hour, fivehours, 10 hours, one day, two days, etc.) of the time period. The dataprocessing system may then use the predicted production for the timeperiod to determine or set the AGC range, as described below.

At operation 1004, the data processing system determines if the state ofcharge limit of the energy storage device is binding. The state ofcharge limit may be a target amount of energy for the energy storagedevice to store for a given time point during the time period. The stateof charge limit may be listed in a state of charge schedule that thedata processing system retrieves from memory for different time pointsthroughout a time period, such as a day. The data processing system maydetermine whether the state of charge limit for a predefined time duringor at the end of the time period (e.g., the next time on the state ofcharge schedule as compared to the current time) of the energy storagedevice is binding by determining either a) to reach the state of chargelimit at the predefined time, the energy storage device needs to becharged at the lesser of (i) the energy storage device's maximumachievable charging rate, and (ii) the predicted power production; or(b) to reach the state of charge limit at the predefined time, theenergy storage device must be discharged at its maximum achievable ratebetween the current time and the time when the state of charge limitapplies. In one example, the state of charge limit may become bindingwhen the state of charge limit for the next time point on the state ofcharge schedule indicates for the data processing system to charge theenergy storage device to the maximum power the energy storage device canhandle or the maximum power the power plant can deliver (whichever isless) from the current time until the time the state of charge limitapplies.

To make the determination as to whether the state of charge limit isbinding, the data processing system may identify the current charge(e.g., current state of charge) of the energy storage device as thedetected charge and compare the current charge to the state of chargelimit for the predefined time to determine an amount the energy storagedevice needs to be charged to reach the state of charge limit. The dataprocessing system may determine (e.g., based on stored tables in memory)how much energy the power plant is predicted to generate between thecurrent time and the predefined time (e.g., the predicted energyproduction), how much the power plant can charge the energy storagedevice between the two times, and how much energy the power plant candistribute (e.g., how much energy a point of interconnection on thepower grid can receive during the time period) between the two times.The data processing system may then make the determinations in a) and b)above based on the identified values. For instance, the data processingsystem may multiply the maximum discharge or distribution rate by thetime between the current time and the predefined time to determine atotal amount of energy the energy storage device can discharge energyover the time period and subtract the determined total amount from thecurrent charge to determine if the energy storage device is capablereaching the target state of charge at the predefined time.

Responsive to determining neither of the conditions (a) or (b) aresatisfied in operation 1004 (and therefore determining the state ofcharge limit is not binding), at operation 1006, the data processingsystem sets the upper AGC limit of the range to the lesser of (i) thepower limit at the point of interconnection of the power grid, and (ii)the sum of the predicted power production and the maximum achievableenergy storage device discharge power. At operation 1008, the dataprocessing system sets the lower AGC limit to the greater of (i) zero,and (ii) the predicted power production minus the maximum achievableenergy storage device charging power.

However, responsive to determining one of the conditions (a) and (b) aresatisfied in operation 1004 (and therefore determining the state ofcharge limit is binding), at operation 1010, the data processing systemdetermines whether to charge or discharge the energy storage deviceduring the time period. The data processing system may do so bycomparing the current charge of the energy storage device to the nextstate of charge limit of the state of charge schedule. If the dataprocessing system determines the current charge exceeds the next stateof charge limit (e.g., the state of charge limit of the next time of thestate of charge schedule), the data processing system may determine todischarge the energy storage device during the time period. If the dataprocessing system determines the current charge is less than the nextstate of charge limit or threshold, the data processing system maydetermine to charge the energy storage device during the time period. Insome embodiments, the data processing system may do so by identifying anidentifier in the state of charge schedule identifying a charge ordischarge status.

Responsive to determining to discharge the energy storage device duringthe time period, at operation 1012, the data processing system sets theupper and lower AGC limits to the predicted power production plus themaximum achievable energy storage device discharge power (e.g., theamount of energy currently stored in the energy storage device plus theamount of energy that is predicted to be generated). Notably, in thiscase, if the central utility sends an AGC signal below the lower AGClimit but above the maximum achievable energy storage device dischargepower to the data processing system, the data processing system maystill control the charge and distribution rates of the energy storagedevice to achieve the next state of charge target by curtailing PVenergy production or may deliver power at the level of the lower AGClimit, depending on the implementation. However, if the central utilitysends an AGC signal that is not only below the lower AGC limit but alsobelow the maximum achievable energy storage device discharge power, thedata processing system may not be able to achieve the state of chargetarget.

Responsive to determining to charge the energy storage device, atoperation 1014, the data processing system determines if the predictedpower production will be less than or equal to the maximum achievablecharge rate of the energy storage device. The data processing system maydo so by comparing the predicted power production for the time intervaland determining if the predicted power production exceeds the maximumachievable charge rate of the energy storage device. If the dataprocessing system determines the predicted power production will be lessthan or equal to the maximum achievable charge rate of the energystorage device, at operation 1016, the data processing system sets bothlimits to zero, thus indicating no energy will be delivered to the powergrid during the time period. However, if the data processing systemdetermines the predicted power production will be greater than themaximum achievable charging power of the energy storage device, atoperation 1018, the data processing system sets the upper and lower AGClimits to the excess predicted power production over the maximumachievable energy storage device charging power.

After transmitting the AGC limits to the central utility operating thepower grid to help enable the central utility optimize energydistribution on the power line (as described above), at operation 1020,the data processing system receives an AGC signal from the centralutility for the time period. The AGC signal may include a request forpower from the power plant. At operation 1022, the data processingsystem determines if the AGC signal is higher than the predicted powerproduction. The data processing system may do so by comparing the valueof the AGC signal to the predicted power production. If the dataprocessing system determines the AGC signal is lower than the predictedpower production, at operation 1024, the data processing system chargesthe energy storage device at a power equal to the lesser of (a) theexcess of the predicted power production above the AGC signal, and (b)the maximum achievable charging power of the energy storage device.However, if the data processing system determines the AGC signal ishigher than the predicted power production, at operation 1026, the dataprocessing system discharges the energy storage device at a power equalto the lesser of (a) the amount by which the AGC signal exceeds thepredicted power production, and (b) the maximum achievable dischargepower of the energy storage device. The data processing system mayrepeat methods 900 and/or 1000 for time periods between each timeindicated in the state of charge schedule that the data processingsystem has stored in memory.

In some embodiments, as described above the decisions the dataprocessing system makes in performing methods 900 and/or 1000 relate toa state of charge schedule (e.g., a series of points in time where thereare target states of charge of the energy storage device) that is storedin memory of the data processing system. The state of charge may be theamount of energy that could be delivered by the energy storage device ifthe energy storage device were to be fully discharged divided by themaximum energy that could be discharged from the energy storage devicefrom a fully-charged state. For example, if the energy storage device ishalf-charged, it is at a 50% state of charge. In some cases, the stateof charge percentages may be based on artificial maximum and/or minimumoperating limits that may be specified in the state of charge schedule(e.g., lithium-ion batteries may be limited to a maximum state of chargeof 90% and a minimum state of charge of 10%). With a state of chargeschedule, there may be a requirement that the energy storage deviceshould be at no less than an 80% state of charge (SOC) at 4 pm, andanother that calls for no less than a 25% state of charge at 10 pm andyet another for 25% state of charge at 6 am. This means the energystorage device must be charged during the day, 55% of its capacity canbe discharged between 4 pm and 10 pm, and none of the capacity of theenergy storage device can be discharged between 10 pm and 6 am. Notably,in this example, the energy storage device can be discharged between 6am and whenever the sun is high enough to start charging it again.

Accordingly, the “next state of charge limit” is the minimum or maximumstate of charge to be met according to the stored state of chargeschedule, and it has an associated point in time (the required time forthe state of charge limit). Continuing with the above example, duringthe day, such a state of charge and point in time may be 80% at 4 pm.The current time may be 2 pm, and the energy storage device may only be20% charged. The data processing system may calculate how much energyneeds to be stored in the energy storage device to charge the energystorage device to 80% by 4 pm. The data processing system may alsocalculate how much energy would be produced by the forecast predictedenergy production in the time between 2 pm and 4 pm. If it would takeall of that energy that is forecast to be generated during the two hourperiod, the data processing system may determine the state of chargelimit has become binding, and thus that the energy that is predicted tobe generated during the two hour period cannot be used for anything else(e.g., transmitted to the power grid).

In another example, the data processing system may determine thepredicted energy production in the next two hours would be more thanenough to charge the energy storage device according to the stored stateof charge schedule, but it would take two hours to charge the energystorage device at the maximum charging rate of the energy storagedevice. In this example, the state of charge limit may become bindingbecause the energy storage device may only be charged at a set rate andtherefore cannot be used to alter how the leftover energy is distributedto other loads.

Overall, the state of charge limit may becomes binding when the state ofcharge limit forces an extreme: charge the energy storage device ateither the maximum power the energy storage device can handle, or themaximum power the predicted energy generation can deliver (whichever isless), from the beginning of the time period (e.g., the current time)until the time when the state of charge limit applies.

In performing methods 900 and 1000, the data processing system mayprovide expected power output to a central utility, particularly,provide information in the form of an upper AGC limit and a lower AGClimit that will apply to an upcoming interval of time (e.g., a timeperiod comprising an interval of time such as a five-minute interval, aone-hour interval, a two-hour interval, etc.). The lower AGC limit maybe the lowest level of power a power plant operator would like todeliver during the upcoming period. Generally speaking, the power plantmay be able to deliver zero power, which may be less than the lower AGClimit. However, the lower AGC limit may enable the power plant operatorto communicate the minimum power the power plant can deliver withoutcurtailing energy production. Thus, the lower AGC limit may be a “soft”limit in that the central utility operating the power grid could send anAGC signal below the lower AGC limit. In contrast, the upper AGC limitmay be a “hard” limit. For instance, if the central utility sends an AGCsignal above the upper AGC limit, the power plant operator will likelynot be able to satisfy the AGC signal at all.

In performing the methods described herein, it can be assumed that thepredicted energy production output of the renewable energy sources willbe constant throughout the respective interval. That being said, forlonger intervals, it may be unlikely that actual instantaneous PV poweroutput will be constant throughout the interval. There are several waysto overcome this deficiency. For example, the data processing system mayconvert forecast instantaneous PV power outputs (or forecast ranges ofinstantaneous PV power outputs) into a fixed-for-the-period forecastvalue by calculating an average of the forecast instantaneous values (oran average of the range of values) across the period; calculating avalue such that the instantaneous value is forecast to be above thecomputed value at least 50%, 90%, 99%, etc., of the time during theinterval; calculating a median of the forecast instantaneous values,etc.

Similarly, in performing the methods described herein, it can be assumedthat the maximum achievable power output limit for the energy storagesystem (energy storage device) is constant throughout the interval. Thislimit may be established by the physical limits of the energy storagedevice itself, but in some cases it may be established by the remainingenergy in the energy storage device, insofar as the energy storagedevice would be fully discharged (or discharged to its minimum operatingstate of charge) at the end of the interval if it were to deliver thelimiting power level for the full duration of the interval.

Furthermore, it can be assumed that the maximum achievable chargingpower limit for the energy storage device is constant throughout theinterval. The data processing system may establish this limit based onthe physical limits of the energy storage device by measuring orcalculating the remaining uncharged capacity of the energy storagedevice, to the extent the energy storage device would be fully chargedat the end of the interval if it were to be charged at the limitingpower level for the full duration of the interval.

In some cases, the situation where the state of charge limit becomesbinding may be undesirable because it “collapses” the AGC range that canbe offered to the central utility (because the upper AGC limit and lowerAGC limit become identical). The data processing system could,therefore, adopt an approach that narrows the AGC range by a lesseramount before the state of charge limit becomes binding, and thushopefully avoid having the state of charge limit become binding at all.For example, the data processing system could determine that, to reachthe required state of charge limit at the required time (e.g., at thenext defined time on the state of charge schedule), the energy storagedevice must be charged at the lesser of its maximum achievable chargingrate or 60% of the predicted energy production in each interval betweenthe present time and the required time. The data processing system couldthen set aside the lesser of the maximum achievable charging rate of theenergy storage device or 60% of the predicted energy production in thenext interval, as power to be used to charge the energy storage device.In this case, the upper AGC limit would be the greater of (a) 60% of thepredicted energy production and (b) the predicted energy production,minus the maximum achievable charging rate of the energy storage device,in both cases subject to also not exceeding the IC limit. The lower AGClimit would be the greater of (a) zero and (b) the predicted powerproduction minus the maximum achievable energy storage device chargingpower. The data processing system could use an analogous modification toaddress situations where the energy storage device would need todischarge in order to achieve the state of charge limit.

These types of alternative approach would somewhat narrow the range ofAGC signals the data processing system could satisfy, especially earlyin each day, but would make it less likely that the state of chargelimit would become binding.

Computer Systems

The present disclosure provides computer systems that are programmed toimplement methods of the disclosure. FIG. 6 shows a computer system 601that is programmed or otherwise configured to regulate electric powerplants. The computer system 601 can regulate various aspects of thepresent disclosure, such as, for example, the pseudocode of FIGS. 7-8.The computer system 601 can be an electronic device of a user or acomputer system that is remotely located with respect to the electronicdevice. The electronic device can be a mobile electronic device.

The computer system 601 includes a central processing unit (CPU, also“processor” and “computer processor” herein) 605, which can be a singlecore or multi core processor, or a plurality of processors for parallelprocessing. The computer system 601 also includes memory or memorylocation 610 (e.g., random-access memory, read-only memory, flashmemory), electronic storage unit 615 (e.g., hard disk), communicationinterface 620 (e.g., network adapter) for communicating with one or moreother systems, and peripheral devices 625, such as cache, other memory,data storage and/or electronic display adapters. The memory 610, storageunit 615, interface 620 and peripheral devices 625 are in communicationwith the CPU 605 through a communication bus (solid lines), such as amotherboard. The storage unit 615 can be a data storage unit (or datarepository) for storing data. The computer system 601 can be operativelycoupled to a computer network (“network”) 630 with the aid of thecommunication interface 620. The network 630 can be the Internet, aninternet and/or extranet, or an intranet and/or extranet that is incommunication with the Internet. The network 630 in some cases is atelecommunication and/or data network. The network 630 can include oneor more computer servers, which can enable distributed computing, suchas cloud computing. The network 630, in some cases with the aid of thecomputer system 601, can implement a peer-to-peer network, which mayenable devices coupled to the computer system 601 to behave as a clientor a server.

The CPU 605 can execute a sequence of machine-readable instructions,which can be embodied in a program or software. The instructions may bestored in a memory location, such as the memory 610. The instructionscan be directed to the CPU 605, which can subsequently program orotherwise configure the CPU 605 to implement methods of the presentdisclosure. Examples of operations performed by the CPU 605 can includefetch, decode, execute, and writeback.

The CPU 605 can be part of a circuit, such as an integrated circuit. Oneor more other components of the system 601 can be included in thecircuit. In some cases, the circuit is an application specificintegrated circuit (ASIC).

The storage unit 615 can store files, such as drivers, libraries andsaved programs. The storage unit 615 can store user data, e.g., userpreferences and user programs. The computer system 601 in some cases caninclude one or more additional data storage units that are external tothe computer system 601, such as located on a remote server that is incommunication with the computer system 601 through an intranet or theInternet.

The computer system 601 can communicate with one or more remote computersystems through the network 630. For instance, the computer system 601can communicate with a remote computer system of a user. Examples ofremote computer systems include personal computers (e.g., portable PC),slate or tablet PC's (e.g., Apple® iPad, Samsung® Galaxy Tab),telephones, Smart phones (e.g., Apple® iPhone, Android-enabled device,Blackberry®), or personal digital assistants. The user can access thecomputer system 601 via the network 630.

Methods as described herein can be implemented by way of machine (e.g.,computer processor) executable code stored on an electronic storagelocation of the computer system 601, such as, for example, on the memory610 or electronic storage unit 615. The machine executable or machinereadable code can be provided in the form of software. During use, thecode can be executed by the processor 605. In some cases, the code canbe retrieved from the storage unit 615 and stored on the memory 610 forready access by the processor 605. In some situations, the electronicstorage unit 615 can be precluded, and machine-executable instructionsare stored on memory 610.

The code can be pre-compiled and configured for use with a machinehaving a processer adapted to execute the code, or can be compiledduring runtime. The code can be supplied in a programming language thatcan be selected to enable the code to execute in a pre-compiled oras-compiled fashion.

Aspects of the systems and methods provided herein, such as the computersystem 601, can be embodied in programming. Various aspects of thetechnology may be thought of as “products” or “articles of manufacture”typically in the form of machine (or processor) executable code and/orassociated data that is carried on or embodied in a type of machinereadable medium. Machine-executable code can be stored on an electronicstorage unit, such as memory (e.g., read-only memory, random-accessmemory, flash memory) or a hard disk. “Storage” type media can includeany or all of the tangible memory of the computers, processors or thelike, or associated modules thereof, such as various semiconductormemories, tape drives, disk drives and the like, which may providenon-transitory storage at any time for the software programming. All orportions of the software may at times be communicated through theInternet or various other telecommunication networks. Suchcommunications, for example, may enable loading of the software from onecomputer or processor into another, for example, from a managementserver or host computer into the computer platform of an applicationserver. Thus, another type of media that may bear the software elementsincludes optical, electrical, and electromagnetic waves, such as usedacross physical interfaces between local devices, through wired andoptical landline networks and over various air-links. The physicalelements that carry such waves, such as wired or wireless links, opticallinks, or the like, also may be considered as media bearing thesoftware. As used herein, unless restricted to non-transitory, tangible“storage” media, terms such as computer or machine “readable medium”refer to any medium that participates in providing instructions to aprocessor for execution.

Hence, a machine readable medium, such as computer-executable code, maytake many forms, including but not limited to, a tangible storagemedium, a carrier wave medium or physical transmission medium.Non-volatile storage media include, for example, optical or magneticdisks, such as any of the storage devices in any computer(s) or thelike, such as may be used to implement the databases, etc. shown in thedrawings. Volatile storage media include dynamic memory, such as mainmemory of such a computer platform. Tangible transmission media includecoaxial cables; copper wire and fiber optics, including the wires thatcomprise a bus within a computer system. Carrier-wave transmission mediamay take the form of electric or electromagnetic signals, or acoustic orlight waves such as those generated during radio frequency (RF) andinfrared (IR) data communications. Common forms of computer-readablemedia therefore include for example: a floppy disk, a flexible disk,hard disk, magnetic tape, any other magnetic medium, a CD-ROM, DVD orDVD-ROM, any other optical medium, punch cards paper tape, any otherphysical storage medium with patterns of holes, a RAM, a ROM, a PROM andEPROM, a FLASH-EPROM, any other memory chip or cartridge, a carrier wavetransporting data or instructions, cables or links transporting such acarrier wave, or any other medium from which a computer may readprogramming code and/or data. Many of these forms of computer readablemedia may be involved in carrying one or more sequences of one or moreinstructions to a processor for execution.

The computer system 601 can include or be in communication with anelectronic display 635 that comprises a user interface (UI) 640 forproviding, for example, a representation of a control of a power plant.Examples of UI's include, without limitation, a graphical user interface(GUI) and web-based user interface.

Methods and systems of the present disclosure can be implemented by wayof one or more algorithms. An algorithm can be implemented by way ofsoftware upon execution by the central processing unit 605. Thealgorithm can, for example, be an implementation of the pseudocode foundin FIGS. 7-8.

The following examples are illustrative of certain systems and methodsdescribed herein and are not intended to be limiting.

Example 1—Time Resolved AGC Data

FIGS. 2-5 are examples of time resolved output graphs, according to someembodiments.

These examples may be for an electric power plant comprising a renewableresource and an energy storage device connected to a power grid througha grid interconnect. In the examples, the time intervals are very short,so that the upper AGC limit, lower AGC limit, PV Power and BESS SOCappear to vary continuously, while changing very little within each timeinterval. The AGC Signals may take place over longer periods and vary ina step-wise fashion in different cases or embodiments. The process foraddressing longer time intervals is described above. Further, in eachexample, the state of charge (SOC) target for the energy storage devicewas set to 25% at the start and adjusted to 95% at 16:00 and 25% at21:30. FIG. 2 is a graph for an example system with a 120 megawattrenewable energy resource (e.g., solar resource), a 240 megawatt hour(2×120 megawatt hour) energy storage device (e.g., BESS), and a gridinterconnect capacity of 150 megawatts; FIG. 3 for an example systemwith a 120 megawatt renewable energy resource, a 180 megawatt hour (2×90megawatt hour) energy storage device, and a grid interconnect capacityof 150 megawatts; FIG. 4 for an example system with a 120 megawattrenewable energy resource, a 120 megawatt hour (2×60 megawatt hour)energy storage device, and a grid interconnect capacity of 150megawatts; and FIG. 5 for an example system with a 120 megawattrenewable energy resource, a 240 megawatt hour (4×60 megawatt hour)energy storage device, and a grid interconnect capacity of 150megawatts.

Referring now to FIG. 2, in this example, a line 250 represents theupper AGC limit, a line 230 represents the lower AGC limit (which may bezero most of the time), a line 220 represents actual PV power (which isassumed, for purposes of illustration, to be equal to the short-termforecast of PV power), a line 240 represents the AGC signal sent by thecentral utility, and a line 210 represents the ESS state of charge. Inthis example, the upper AGC limit is equal to the IC limit for much ofthe morning (excepting those times when the sum of the PV power plus themaximum achievable ESS discharge was below the IC limit) and into theearly afternoon. However, shortly before 14:00, the SOC limit becomesbinding and no power is sent to the POI (upper and lower AGC limitsbecome zero) until the ESS has been charged at just before 4 μm.Thereafter, the upper AGC limit rises again, but by 16:30 it is limitedto the maximum achievable discharge power of the ESS because the PVoutput has dropped to zero. Shortly before 19:00 the ESS reaches itstarget SOC for the night and the upper AGC limit falls to zero.

Referring now to FIG. 3, as illustrated in FIG. 3, a line 350 representsthe upper AGC limit, a line 330 represents the lower AGC limit (whichmay be zero most of the time), a line 320 represents actual PV power(which is assumed, for purposes of illustration, to be equal to theshort-term forecast of PV power), a line 340 represents the AGC signalsent by the central utility, and a line 310 represents the ESS state ofcharge. In this example, the upper AGC limit rises up to the IC limit asbefore, but during the early afternoon the PV output falls (presumablydue to weather). Here, the ESS power limit is lower than in the firstcase illustrated, and as a result the combined PV power and maximumachievable ESS discharge power are less than the IC limit at timesbetween 12:00 and 13:30, resulting in the upper ACG limit also fallingbelow the IC limit then. Shortly after 14:00 the PV power rises sharply,and—again because of the lower power limits of the ESS—the lower AGClimit rises above zero because the maximum achievable ESS charging poweris lower than the PV power. At around 14:30 the PV power falls again,and the SOC limit becomes binding. In the evening hours, with thebattery having been fully charged by 16:00, the situation is verysimilar to what we saw in the first case illustrated, except that theESS discharge power limit is lower.

Referring now to FIG. 4, as illustrated in FIG. 4, a line 450 representsthe upper AGC limit, a line 430 represents the lower AGC limit (whichmay be zero most of the time), a line 420 represents actual PV power(which is assumed, for purposes of illustration, to be equal to theshort-term forecast of PV power), a line 440 represents the AGC signalsent by the central utility, and a line 410 represents the ESS state ofcharge. In this example, the AGC signal from the central utility is wellbelow the upper AGC limit, and the ESS capacity is smaller than in theprevious cases illustrated. The ESS becomes fully charged by around11:00, resulting in both the upper AGC limit and the lower AGC limitbecoming equal to the PV Power until 16:00. At 16:00, the SOC limitstill applies, but after that time it does not and the upper AGC limitcan rise as in the previous cases. The evening hours play out similarlyto the previous cases illustrated, except that the ESS discharge powerlimit is still lower.

Referring now to FIG. 5, as illustrated in FIG. 5, a line 550 representsthe upper AGC limit, a line 530 represents the lower AGC limit (whichmay be zero most of the time), a line 520 represents actual PV power(which is assumed, for purposes of illustration, to be equal to theshort-term forecast of PV power), a line 540 represents the AGC signalsent by the central utility, and a line 510 represents the ESS state ofcharge. In this example, the ESS capacity is relatively small, so thatthe upper AGC limit and lower AGC limit tend to track the PV Powerthrough much of the day, displaced from the PV Power by the maximumachievable discharge and charge powers (respectively) of the ESS.

While preferred embodiments of the present invention have been shown anddescribed herein, it will be obvious to those skilled in the art thatsuch embodiments are provided by way of example only. It is not intendedthat the invention be limited by the specific examples provided withinthe specification. While the invention has been described with referenceto the aforementioned specification, the descriptions and illustrationsof the embodiments herein are not meant to be construed in a limitingsense. Numerous variations, changes, and substitutions will now occur tothose skilled in the art without departing from the invention.Furthermore, it shall be understood that all aspects of the inventionare not limited to the specific depictions, configurations or relativeproportions set forth herein which depend upon a variety of conditionsand variables. It should be understood that various alternatives to theembodiments of the invention described herein may be employed inpracticing the invention. It is therefore contemplated that theinvention shall also cover any such alternatives, modifications,variations, or equivalents. It is intended that the following claimsdefine the scope of the invention and that methods and structures withinthe scope of these claims and their equivalents be covered thereby.

What is claimed is:
 1. A method, comprising: determining, at a firsttime, a forecast of predicted energy production by an electric powerplant over a time period subsequent to the first time based on aforecast for the time period, the electric power plant comprising arenewable energy resource and an energy storage device; detecting acurrent state of charge of the energy storage device; calculating arange of automatic generation controls the electric power plant iscapable of satisfying for the time period based on the forecast ofpredicted energy production and the detected current state of charge ofthe energy storage device; signaling, from the electric power plant to acentral utility controlling a power grid, the range of automaticgeneration controls the electric power plant is capable of satisfyingfor the time period; receiving, during the time period, a request for anamount of power below a lower bound of the range; and responsive to therequest, sending, from the electric power plant, power equal to thelower bound to the power grid.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein receiptof the range of automatic generation controls causes the central utilityto: input the range of automatic generation controls into anoptimization function for distributing energy from the power grid overthe time period; and distribute energy to one or more loads from thepower grid according to an output of the optimization function.
 3. Themethod of claim 1, wherein the time period is a first time period, theforecast of predicted energy production is a first forecast of predictedenergy production, the current state of charge is a first current stateof charge, and the range of automatic generation controls is a firstrange of automatic generation controls, further comprising: during thefirst time period, determining a second forecast of predicted energyproduction by the electric power plant over a second time periodsubsequent to the first time period, based on a forecast for the secondtime period; detecting a second current state of charge of the energystorage device; calculating a second range of automatic generationcontrols the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for thesecond time period subsequent to the first time period; and signaling,from the electric power plant to the central utility, the second rangeof automatic generation controls the electric power plant is capable ofsatisfying for the second time period.
 4. The method of claim 1, whereincalculating the range of automatic generation controls comprises:determining a predicted power production based on the predicted energyproduction and a duration of the time period; determining a state ofcharge limit of the energy storage device has become binding; responsiveto the determining the state of charge limit of the energy storagedevice has become binding, determining to discharge the energy storagedevice; and responsive to the determining to discharge the energystorage device, setting upper and lower limits of the range of automaticgeneration controls to the predicted power production plus a maximumachievable discharge power of the energy storage device.
 5. A method,comprising: determining, at a first time, a forecast of predicted energyproduction by an electric power plant over a time period subsequent tothe first time based on a forecast for the time period, the electricpower plant comprising a renewable energy resource and an energy storagedevice; detecting a current state of charge of the energy storagedevice; calculating a range of automatic generation controls theelectric power plant is capable of satisfying for the time period basedon the forecast of predicted energy production and the detected currentstate of charge of the energy storage device; and signaling, from theelectric power plant to a central utility controlling a power grid, therange of automatic generation controls the electric power plant iscapable of satisfying for the time period, wherein calculating the rangeof automatic generation controls comprises: determining a predictedpower production based on the predicted energy production and a durationof the time period; determining a state of charge limit of the energystorage device has become binding; responsive to the determining thestate of charge limit of the energy storage device has become binding,determining to charge the energy storage device; and responsive to thedetermining to charge the energy storage device, setting upper and lowerlimits of the range of automatic generation controls to an excesspredicted power production over a maximum achievable charging power ofthe energy storage device.
 6. The method of claim 5, wherein setting theupper and lower limits of the range of automatic generation controls toan excess predicted power production is performed further responsive todetermining the predicted power production exceeds the maximumachievable charge power of the energy storage device.
 7. A method,comprising: determining, at a first time, a forecast of predicted energyproduction by an electric power plant over a time period subsequent tothe first time based on a forecast for the time period, the electricpower plant comprising a renewable energy resource and an energy storagedevice; detecting a current state of charge of the energy storagedevice; calculating a range of automatic generation controls theelectric power plant is capable of satisfying for the time period basedon the forecast of predicted energy production and the detected currentstate of charge of the energy storage device; and signaling, from theelectric power plant to a central utility controlling a power grid, therange of automatic generation controls the electric power plant iscapable of satisfying for the time period, wherein calculating the rangeof automatic generation controls comprises: determining a predictedpower production based on the predicted energy production and a durationof the time period; determining a state of charge limit of the energystorage device has not become binding; and responsive to the determiningthe state of charge limit of the energy storage device has not becomebinding, setting an upper limit of the range of automatic generationcontrols to a lesser of (a) a power limit of a point of interconnectionof the power grid, and (b) a sum of the predicted power production and amaximum achievable discharge power of the energy storage device.
 8. Themethod of claim 7, wherein calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols comprises further responsive to the determining the state ofcharge limit of the energy storage device has not become binding,setting a lower limit of the range of automatic generation controls to agreater of (a) zero, and (b) the predicted power production minus themaximum achievable discharge power of the energy storage device.
 9. Themethod of claim 1, wherein calculating the range of automatic generationcontrols comprises calculating a confidence score for the range ofautomatic generation controls, wherein signaling the range of automaticgeneration controls to the central utility comprises transmitting theconfidence score for the range with the range.
 10. A system, comprising:one or more computer processors operatively coupled to computer memory,wherein the one or more computer processors are configured bymachine-readable instructions to: determine, at a first time, a forecastof predicted energy production by an electric power plant over a timeperiod subsequent to the first time based on a forecast for the timeperiod, the electric power plant comprising a renewable energy resourceand an energy storage device; detecting a current state of charge of theenergy storage device; calculate a range of automatic generationcontrols the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for the timeperiod based on the forecast of predicted energy production and thedetected current state of charge of the energy storage device; signal,from the electric power plant to a central utility controlling a powergrid, the range of automatic generation controls the electric powerplant is capable of satisfying for the time period; receive, during thetime period, a request for an amount of power below a lower bound of therange; and responsive to the request, send, from the electric powerplant, power equal to the lower bound to the power grid.
 11. The systemof claim 10, wherein receipt of the range of automatic generationcontrols causes the central utility to: input the range of automaticgeneration controls into an optimization function for distributingenergy from the power grid over the time period; and distribute energyto one or more loads from the power grid according to an output of theoptimization function.
 12. The system of claim 10, wherein the timeperiod is a first time period, the forecast of predicted energyproduction is a first forecast of predicted energy production, thecurrent state of charge is a first current state of charge, and therange of automatic generation controls is a first range of automaticgeneration controls, wherein the one or more computer processors arefurther configured by machine-readable instructions to: during the firsttime period, determine a second forecast of predicted energy productionby the electric power plant over a second time period subsequent to thefirst time period, based on a weather forecast for the second timeperiod; detect a second current state of charge of the energy storagedevice; calculate a second range of automatic generation controls theelectric power plant is capable of satisfying for the second time periodsubsequent to the first time period; and signal, from the electric powerplant to the central utility, the second range of automatic generationcontrols the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for thesecond time period.
 13. The system of claim 10, wherein the one or morecomputer processors are configured by machine-readable instructions tocalculate the range of automatic generation controls by: determining apredicted power production based on the predicted energy production anda duration of the time period; determining a state of charge limit ofthe energy storage device has become binding; responsive to thedetermining the state of charge limit of the energy storage device hasbecome binding, determining to discharge the energy storage device; andresponsive to the determining to discharge the energy storage device,setting upper and lower limits of the range of automatic generationcontrols to the predicted power production plus a maximum achievabledischarge power of the energy storage device.
 14. The system of claim10, wherein the one or more computer processors are configured bymachine-readable instructions to calculate the range of automaticgeneration controls by: determining a predicted power production basedon the predicted energy production and a duration of the time period;determining a state of charge limit of the energy storage device hasbecome binding; responsive to the determining the state of charge limitof the energy storage device has become binding, determining to chargethe energy storage device; and responsive to the determining to chargethe energy storage device, setting upper and lower limits of the rangeof automatic generation controls to an excess predicted power productionover a maximum achievable charging power of the energy storage device.15. The system of claim 14, wherein the one or more computer processorsare configured by machine-readable instructions to set upper and lowerlimits of the range of automatic generation controls to an excesspredicted power production further responsive to determining thepredicted power production exceeds the maximum achievable charge powerof the energy storage device.
 16. The system of claim 10, wherein theone or more computer processors are configured by machine-readableinstructions to calculate the range of automatic generation controls by:determining a predicted power production based on the predicted energyproduction and a duration of the time period; determining a state ofcharge limit of the energy storage device has not become binding; andresponsive to the determining the state of charge limit of the energystorage device has not become binding, setting an upper limit of therange of automatic generation controls to a lesser of (a) a power limitof a point of interconnection of the power grid, and (b) a sum of thepredicted power production and a maximum achievable discharge power ofthe energy storage device.
 17. One or more non-transitory computerstorage media storing instructions that are operable, when executed byone or more computers, to cause said one or more computers to performoperations comprising: determining, at a first time, a forecast ofpredicted energy production by an electric power plant over a timeperiod subsequent to the first time based on a forecast for the timeperiod, the electric power plant comprising a renewable energy resourceand an energy storage device; detecting a current state of charge of theenergy storage device; calculating a range of automatic generationcontrols the electric power plant is capable of satisfying for the timeperiod based on the forecast of predicted energy production and thedetected current state of charge of the energy storage device;signaling, from an electric power plant comprising a renewable energyresource and an energy storage device to a central utility controlling apower grid, the range of automatic generation controls the electricpower plant is capable of satisfying for the time period; receiving,during the time period, a request for an amount of power below a lowerbound of the range; and responsive to the request, sending, from theelectric power plant, power equal to the lower bound to the power grid.